RBI Data Shows Greater Job Creation Than Private Survey Results Suggest

MUMBAI, India — The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) published statistics on Monday showing that, in the fiscal year ending March 2024, the country created 46.7 million jobs, exceeding the numbers recorded by private polls, which have frequently underlined significant unemployment rates in the country.

Employment Increase and Economic Environment

The RBI reports that whilst the employment growth rate in 2022-23 was 3.2%, in 2023–24 it was 6%. India’s overall employment reached at 643.3 million in 2023-24, up from 596.7 million in the previous fiscal year, according to figures of the central bank measuring industry-level productivity and employment. Data provided from the Ministry of Labour and the National Accounts of the government form this basis.

Political Consequences

The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has found great debate over job creation. Analysts have linked high unemployment and inflation to Modi’s inability to get a majority in the most recent legislative elections, which forces him to rely on coalition partners to assemble a government for a third term.

Differences using Private Surveys

The RBI’s report runs quite opposite to results from private polls. According to a recent Citibank estimate, India will generate only 8 to 9 million jobs with a GDP growth rate close to 7%, not meeting the 11 to 12 million employment required yearly. Samiran Chakraborty, chief India economist at Citi, said that even strong GDP growth could not be sufficient for the employment needs over the next ten years.

Response of Government

Reacting to the Citibank research, the federal labour department said that between 2017-18 and 2021-22 their estimations showed an average addition of over 20 million jobs annually. This counter-narrative seeks to reassure the people on efforts by the government in employment creation.

More general financial effects

Another private think tank, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), projected that from 7.5% and 7.7% in the past two years to 8% in the fiscal year 2023–24. This points to a more complicated employment situation whereby estimates of job creation would not adequately solve the fundamental problems with job quality and economic stability.

Forward- Looking Notes

Although the RBI’s most recent report is a regular release, it represents the first time the central bank has tried a preliminary estimate of productivity for the whole economy based on current data. This action seeks to give a more whole view of the labor market dynamics and economic situation of India.