India-Maldives Diplomatic Tensions: A Test for Regional Ties

NEW DELHI, India — The warm, long-standing bond between India and the Maldives, built on years of shared history, trade, and security cooperation, hit choppy waters in early 2024. A public spat, fueled by careless remarks from Maldivian officials and shifting political priorities under President Mohamed Muizzu, has strained ties between these Indian Ocean neighbors. This fallout, unfolding against the backdrop of regional power plays, raises tough questions about how India and the Maldives can keep their partnership on track while navigating competing interests.

The trouble kicked off in January 2024, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Lakshadweep to boost its tourism potential. Three Maldivian junior ministers—Malsha Shareef, Mariyam Shiuna, and Abdulla Mahzoom Majid—posted offensive comments on social media, calling Modi a “clown” and worse. The backlash in India was swift, with #BoycottMaldives trending online and Indian tourists, a key market for the Maldives, staying away in droves—a 42% drop in arrivals in early 2024 compared to the previous year. The Maldivian government quickly suspended the officials and issued apologies. “Those remarks don’t reflect our position,” said Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer, scrambling to calm the storm.

The episode wasn’t just about a few reckless tweets. It came as President Muizzu, who took office in November 2023, pushed his “India Out” campaign, promising to remove Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives for emergency aid and disaster relief. By May 2024, India replaced its roughly 80 troops with civilian staff after tense negotiations. Meanwhile, Muizzu’s early trips to Turkey, the UAE, and China—where he inked 20 deals, including tourism and infrastructure projects—hinted at a tilt toward Beijing. This shift worried India, which sees the Maldives as a vital partner in keeping the Indian Ocean secure.

“India’s role in the Maldives is about more than just aid—it’s about ensuring stability in a region where China’s influence is growing,” said Priya Menon, a geopolitical analyst based in New Delhi. “But Muizzu’s moves suggest he’s testing how far he can push for independence without burning bridges.” India remains a lifeline for the Maldives, supplying essentials like rice, sugar, and medicines, and funding major projects like the $500 million Greater Malé Connectivity Project. In 2024, India bumped up its aid budget for the Maldives to ₹770.9 crore, a sign it’s not ready to walk away.

The tensions have rippled beyond the two nations, shaking up regional cooperation. The Maldives skipped meetings of the Colombo Security Conclave, a maritime security group with India and Sri Lanka, and sought new partners like Sri Lanka for services India once provided, like medical evacuations. These moves have frustrated India’s efforts to promote its “Neighborhood First” policy and initiatives like SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region).

Still, both sides have shown they want to patch things up. Muizzu’s visit to India in October 2024, following Zameer’s trip in May, focused on rebuilding trust. India stepped up with $50 million in aid and a ₹3,000 crore currency swap deal to help the Maldives’ tourism-dependent economy, which leans heavily on Indian visitors. “India has always been there for us in tough times,” Modi said during the visit, striking a hopeful note.

The bigger picture is a tug-of-war between India’s regional influence and China’s growing ambitions through its Belt and Road Initiative. “The Maldives is caught in a tricky spot, balancing its need for autonomy with its reliance on India,” said Anil Kapoor, a retired diplomat who served in South Asia. “Both countries need to keep talking to avoid a deeper divide.” With the Maldives just 70 nautical miles from Lakshadweep, its strategic importance to India’s maritime security is undeniable.

Moving forward, the India-Maldives relationship will depend on patience and practical steps. While Muizzu’s flirtation with China tests India’s resolve, New Delhi’s deep economic and historical ties offer a foundation for repair. For the Maldives, finding a balance between asserting its independence and maintaining regional harmony will be crucial. In a region where cooperation is key, both nations have a lot riding on getting this right.